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Advertising Industry May Not Recover Until 2010, Citigroup Says


Advertising in the U.S. may not recover until 2010 if businesses wait for the economy to bounce back before boosting marketing spending, analysts at Citigroup Inc. said.

Ad spending across all media, including print, broadcast and the Internet, may fall 1.8 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2009, Citigroup's Catriona Fallon and her colleagues said in a report yesterday. Citigroup had originally projected growth of 0.2 percent in 2008 and a decline of 0.3 percent next year.

Because campaigns take time to plan and execute, an ad recovery can lag behind a resurgence in the economy, the report said. While the Beijing Olympics and political campaigns contributed to ad revenue this year, local and national ad media have experienced ``severe slowdowns,'' the report said.

``We now see a sharp falloff in consumer spending and economic output and a high likelihood of a recession through most of 2009,'' Fallon wrote. ``We believe U.S. advertising spending will see the first back-to-back annual declines since at least the 1950s.''

Newspaper spending may suffer the biggest drop, slipping 16.3 percent this year and 12.5 percent the next, Citigroup forecast. Internet spending growth, projected at 11.4 percent for 2008, could slow to 5.8 percent in 2009, according to the report. Search-based ads and digital video are among the few bright spots in online advertising, Fallon said.

The U.S. economy will probably grow 1.6 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The same survey suggests fourth-quarter gross domestic product will contract 0.35 percent, following last quarter's 0.3 percent drop.




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